Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.318352 0.364218 0.414058 0.472202 0.538130 0.610526 0.696018
2025-08-17 0.232947 0.289527 0.355940 0.439508 0.541713 0.662505 0.815966
2025-08-24 0.181343 0.243162 0.321015 0.425942 0.563332 0.736760 0.971931
2025-08-31 0.143378 0.206445 0.291270 0.413134 0.583095 0.811022 1.139088
2025-09-07 0.120416 0.185267 0.277978 0.419265 0.628065 0.923995 1.373679
2025-09-14 0.096225 0.157766 0.251030 0.401366 0.636067 0.986490 1.546782
2025-09-21 0.079804 0.138895 0.233469 0.394108 0.657985 1.071381 1.764052
2025-09-28 0.066379 0.122284 0.216513 0.384677 0.674456 1.149349 1.980612
2025-10-05 0.059122 0.114773 0.213145 0.396833 0.727485 1.291989 2.319997
2025-10-12 0.051190 0.104552 0.203322 0.395980 0.757617 1.399661 2.613854
2025-10-19 0.045276 0.097037 0.197100 0.400475 0.797543 1.528778 2.961203
2025-10-26 0.040705 0.091330 0.193320 0.408831 0.845486 1.677760 3.362799
2025-11-02 0.034087 0.080355 0.177798 0.392468 0.844990 1.739681 3.615697
2025-11-09 0.028124 0.069642 0.161020 0.370807 0.830650 1.773135 3.818427
2025-11-16 0.024230 0.062872 0.151546 0.363222 0.844589 1.865089 4.152065
2025-11-23 0.020888 0.056742 0.142443 0.354940 0.855736 1.952708 4.488588
2025-11-30 0.018970 0.053780 0.140205 0.362181 0.902874 2.123479 5.026913
2025-12-07 0.016146 0.047859 0.129760 0.347941 0.897830 2.178354 5.315085
2025-12-14 0.014169 0.043817 0.123309 0.342520 0.913088 2.281189 5.726180
2025-12-21 0.012373 0.039898 0.116465 0.334901 0.921652 2.369286 6.113808
2025-12-28 0.011547 0.038666 0.116648 0.345998 0.979684 2.583449 6.832315
2026-01-04 0.010392 0.036174 0.112870 0.345566 1.007248 2.725799 7.390725
2026-01-11 0.009519 0.034392 0.110827 0.349736 1.047951 2.906608 8.069541